Trump Eyes Weighted H-1B Lottery System
As unemployment rises for computer science grads, DHS eyes reforms that critics say will continue to feed Silicon Valley’s appetite for underpaid H-1B labor.
WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) are preparing to revise how H-1B visas are allocated, moving away from the current lottery system to a weighted selection process, according to a regulatory notice filed last week.
The proposed rule, titled “Weighted Selection Process for Registrants and Petitioners Seeking To File Cap-Subject H-1B Petitions,” was submitted Thursday to the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA). It is expected to be published in the Federal Register once the review is complete.
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While the full details are not yet public, the new system is likely to prioritize applicants based on factors such as wages or job-specific skills, rather than relying solely on chance.
The H-1B visa program allows U.S. employers to hire foreign workers in specialty occupations such as computer science and engineering. The program reached its cap for fiscal year 2026 on Friday. As of 2019, approximately 600,000 H-1B visa holders were employed in the United States, according to USCIS data.
Technology companies have long supported the program, citing the need to recruit global talent. However, critics argue that the visa system suppresses wages, reduces job opportunities for American graduates, and is routinely exploited by outsourcing firms.
Labor advocates have pointed to government data showing that in 2023, the number of work permits issued to foreign workers in computer-related fields through three major visa programs was equivalent to more than 80 percent of the number of American computer science graduates that year. This has raised concerns that recent U.S. graduates are being sidelined in favor of less expensive foreign labor.
Recent data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that recent college graduates are facing higher unemployment rates than the general workforce. In the first quarter of 2025, the unemployment rate for recent graduates was 5.8 percent, compared to the national average of 4.0 percent. Unemployment among computer science graduates was 6.1 percent, and 7.5 percent for those in computer engineering.
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A 2025 ZipRecruiter survey found that more than one-quarter of graduates with degrees in computer science, IT, or data science said they would have chosen a different field of study if given the chance.
Critics of the H-1B program have highlighted its rapid growth. Between 2011 and 2022, the number of H-1B workers increased by 81 percent, from roughly 363,000 to more than 685,000. The majority of these visas are issued for jobs in computer-related occupations, raising concerns about the displacement of U.S. graduates in entry-level positions.
Researchers and policy experts have also argued that both the H-1B and the Optional Practical Training (OPT) programs distort the labor market by allowing employers to pay foreign workers significantly less than their American counterparts. These wage disparities, critics say, create incentives for companies to rely on visa holders rather than hire domestically.
Outsourcing firms, which often operate under a model that sends the majority of IT work offshore while retaining a small on-site presence in the United States, have been among the most frequent users of the H-1B program. These firms bring in visa holders to manage the onshore portion of contracts, which critics say allows them to reduce costs while avoiding hiring American workers.
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In addition to outsourcing firms, major tech companies such as Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and IBM have also been major users of the H-1B program. Labor researchers say many of these firms assign visa holders to lower wage levels that fall below local median salaries for comparable roles.
Efforts to assess the true scale of job displacement caused by offshoring and foreign worker programs have been hampered by the lack of government data collection. Researchers have called for better tracking of white-collar job offshoring and more transparent reporting.
Some labor policy experts argue that the flaws in the H-1B and OPT programs can be addressed through administrative changes. Recommendations include stricter wage protections, enhanced compliance auditing by the Department of Labor, enforcement of wage rules for visa holders, and curbing misclassification of skill levels in visa petitions.
Reform advocates have also called on Congress to require U.S. employers to actively recruit domestic workers before turning to foreign labor, implement random audits of H-1B employers, and consider adopting aspects of Canada’s immigration system, which places greater emphasis on domestic labor market testing
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