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Our Immigration Election Forecast
Some races to watch tomorrow on Election Day (Spoiler: There's lots of good news for migrants).
Pablo Manríquez
November 04, 2024
Americans head to the polls tomorrow for the final day of what has been the most xenophobic general election campaign in decades. We looked through the congressional forecasts to identify some bright spots for migrants in what has been a grueling two-year slog to the finish line. Here are the races we’re watching on Election Day, 2024 —
Table of Contents
Arizona Senate
Rep. Ruben Gallego is expected to beat Republican Kari Lake, a former TV news anchor-turned-xenophobe and election denier, for the Senate seat vacated by Kyrsten Sinema, one of the three architects of the bipartisan border bill a year ago.
On Migrant Relief: Gallego, a four-term Democrat, has run a mistake-free campaign and has a track record of supporting migrant relief policies. Like many Democrats, he has vocally touted border enforcement bonafides during his senate run, but never backed down from his stances on citizenship and administrative relief for impacted migrants.
Nebraska Senate
Republican Senator Deb Fischer was expected to win a third term, but her mistake-prone campaign has failed to decisively ward off independent challenger Dan Osborn.
On Migrant Relief: Fischer has never been friendly to migrants, having opposed basically every relief proposal since the bipartisan bill led by the late Senator John McCain when Fischer was a freshman in 2013. Osborn hasn’t said much about relief policies on the campaign trail. His campaign website offers a three-sentence “platform” that begins: “Legal immigration helped build this country and is critical to Nebraska’s economy. Illegal immigration creates a pool of cheap labor with no rights and is detrimental to every American worker.”
Texas Senate
Democratic challenger Rep. Colin Allred has forced Republicans to spend hugely to keep the seat of incumbent Senator Ted Cruz. Allred, a former NFL player, is forecasted to lose, but if he somehow pulls off a win in Texas, the result could be seismic for migrant relief policies in the Senate.
On Migrant Relief: Allred is a co-sponsor of the Dream Act and has even co-authored a bill with Democrat Rep. Delia Ramirez to extend AmeriCorps benefits to Dreamers. Cruz, on the other hand, is wildly anti-migrant. The political shift in tone and substance would likely be huge.
Arizona’s 6th Congressional District
Former Democratic state legislator Kirsten Engel is expected to unseat freshman GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani. Engel has hammered the incumbent as an anti-abortion extremist while advocating for relief for Dreamers, visa system reform, and funding for migrant shelters. In the House, Ciscomani, a migrant from Mexico, embarrassed his own family with his cartoonish political makeover as a MAGA spokesperson on the border.
Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District
Republican incumbent Rep. Don Bacon is expected to lose his race to Democratic State Senator Tony Vargas, the son of Peruvian migrants and former public school teacher running on an education and healthcare platform. Vargas is a longtime advocate for migrant relief policies including a pathway to citizenship for unauthorized migrants. If Vargas sticks to his principles, having another Latino migrant in 119th Congress should be a welcome relief to advocates looking to get a foothold for relief policies in the new term.
New York’s 3rd Congressional District
Rep. Tom Souzzi is expected to win the race against Michael LiPetri, a GOP attorney who ran on hardline immigration enforcement. What makes the Long Island Democrat interesting is that he has convened an immigration working group and seems intent on growing it when congress convenes again on November 12th. The details of the working group remain vague, but already the far-right negotiating partners Suozzi has invited to the table seem to be chipping away at any prospect for meaningful relief. We’ll know more when Congress returns on November 12 —but for now, watch this space.
Washington’s 4th Congressional District
Rep. Dan Newhouse is expected to win his race against a challenge from the right by fellow-Republican Jarrod Sessler. As Migrant Insider scooped last week, Newhouse is part of the Suozzi group working on a new bill. As a member of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Agriculture, the Washington Republican has led the GOP push for the bipartisan Agricultural Workforce Modernization Act since 2019. The bill would provide a legalization pathway for farm workers (and their families) who work at least 1,035 hours over a two-year period.
New York’s 19th Congressional District
Republican Rep. Marcus Molinaro is expected to lose his race to Democrat Josh Riley, an attorney and political operative who is the son of Indian and Ecuadorian migrants. The freshman Molinaro is an avowed xenophobe who helped spread the lie that Haitian migrants in Ohio were killing and eating pets. The Democrat Riley has advocated for more immigration judges to process asylum applications and for updating the farmworker visa program.
New York’s 8th Congressional District
It may seem silly to mention House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries here, but with Democrats poised to retake the House Majority, Jeffries will almost certainly be elected the 57th Speaker of the House when congress convenes for the new session on January 3.
The good news for migrants is that Jeffries is a longtime supporter of migrant relief policies, including as a cosponsor of Rep. Zoe Lofgren’s immigration registry bill during the 117th Congress. As a member of House leadership, Jeffries did not cosponsor the bill (reintroduced by Rep. Norma Torres and Senator Alex Padilla), but the registry bill is a marker for where Jeffries was as an up-and-comer under Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
The bad news for migrants is the burden of leadership will almost certainly change Jeffries. Proposals he supported as a rank-in-file Democrat from New York might not be as easy to back as Speaker. While that rarely stopped Pelosi from maintaining her pro-migrant bonafides, soon it will be up to Jeffries to decide what bills make it to the House floor, and when.
OUR TAKE: We hear migrant advocates have an extensive list of policy recommendations for Harris if she wins. It would be wise to have a similar list of asks for Jeffries as soon as possible.