Elon Musk Can Totally Buy H1B Reform
But only if Trump backs DOGE's play in Congress to the bitter end, especially in the House.
ANALYSIS — The Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, is a bully pulpit Donald Trump created up out of thin air. It has no authority to make or implement policy, but it has a potentially limitless political jurisdiction to lobby Congress and federal agencies to advance a policy agenda.
Trump named Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to run DOGE. The pair’s first public collaboration as “DOGE bros” came over Christmas when rightwing instigator Laura Loomer popped off about Sriram Krishnan, an AI policy advisor in the new White House who has expressed his support for H1B reforms.
Elon and Vivek came to Krishnan’s defense, touting the merits of H1B visa migrants with Ramaswamy ultimately blaming American culture for producing a mediocre domestic workforce that necessitates foreign labor to be competitive in the global economy.
Predictably, MAGA purists pushed back hard, dragging the DOGE bros in a raging social media fight where Musk did not back down. “Fuck yourself in the face,” Musk posted on X, formerly Twitter, which he owns. “We’re going to rip your face off,” Steve Bannon shot back on his web show.
In the end, Trump seemed to side with DOGE: "I've always felt we have to have the most competent people in our country, and we need competent people," said the president-elect Tuesday from Mar-a-Lago. "We need smart people coming into our country. We need a lot of people coming in. We're going to have jobs like we've never had before,” Trump continued, leaving MAGA purists dumbstruck a little over two weeks before he returns to power in the White House.
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In effect, the DOGE bros have steamrolled Loomer and her xenophobic comrades on H1B reform — at least, so far. Krishnan remains the Ai advisor to the president-elect who seems to be backing Musk’s play. So let's game this out —
If Trump is serious about H1B migrants (an enormous "if", especially given his 2016 opposition to the visa category), DOGE could probably push a reform bill through Congress. How? In a word: money. Lots of it.
Musk has more to spend on politics than anyone else, maybe ever. He shelled out at least $250 million to get Trump elected in 2024, establishing himself as serious campaign spender. House Speaker Mike Johnson (assuming he’s reelected) and Senate Minority Leader John Thune have every reason to fear the insane amount of money Musk can spend tearing through their GOP caucuses in the midterm.
“I will go to war on this issue the likes of which you cannot possibly comprehend," Musk tweeted last week about H1B reform, responding to the predictable, fanatical tidal wave of xenophobia that he and others helped stoke during Trump’s second reelection campaign.
DOGE support for H1B reform is an unexpected early pivot into the xenophobic falsehoods and bad faith that undergirds the MAGA movement’s outlook on all migrants, including employment-based, legal visa holders, many from India, which xenophobic blowhards have long-cast as predatory usurpers in the American workforce.
To push a meaningful H1B reform package through Congress, Musk will need three things: a bill (easier said than done), Trump's continued backing, and as many Congressional Democrats as DOGE can rally to vote for a package, to offset the inevitable opposition from anti-migrant activists in the congressional GOP.
Democrats would be especially important in a discharge petition situation, which might be the only path forward for a meaningful H1B reform bill in the GOP-controlled House. A discharge petition allows a simple majority of House members to vote on legislation the Speaker won't bring to the floor, which might be the case under Johnson.
If the rules package’s for the new House includes, as expected, a nine-member threshold to enter a motion to vacate the speaker, the obscure procedure that ousted Johnson’s predecessor Kevin McCarthy, putting an H1B reform bill on the floor could be a real threat to his gavel.
Can DOGE manage a simple majority of the House for H1B visa reform, whether via regular order or a discharge petition? Only if Trump backs their play. Otherwise, highly unlikely. Beyond keeping Trump on his side, DOGE will have to work with Congress on a bipartisan basis to draft an actual bill. So at this point, it’s worth thinking about what an H1B reform bill could look like.
The DOGE bros have indicated that relief for H1B migrants, fostering entrepreneurship, and addressing America’s workforce needs to compete in the global economy are top priorities. Provisions to clamp down on abuse of the H1B system, especially by IT companies, will almost surely need to be a part of a bipartisan package. Making new green cards available to clear the unconscionably long backlog of H1B migrants be as efficiently as possible would also be on-brand for DOGE.
H1B reform may seem like a long shot now. But all things H1B are possible if Trump is serious about working through DOGE to get it done. Again ... a huge if.
But since Trump campaigned on immigration issue and there was actually a bipartisan boarder bill last year that almost passed the congress, I'd assume both parties would come together to work out a plan. And H1B/skilled immigration will be addressed as part of the comprehensive immigration reform.
This would be my guess. Curious your thoughts on this.