Fields Empty, Hotels Struggle: Trump’s Deportation Agenda Backfires on U.S. Economy
Labor shortages already roiling agriculture and hospitality industries will likely leave Americans paying far more for food, travel, and basic goods.
WASHINGTON— President Donald Trump’s mass deportation plans, a cornerstone of his second term, are raising alarms among farmers, hoteliers, and economists who warn that removing undocumented workers from agriculture and hospitality will drive up prices for American consumers. As labor shortages intensify, the ripple effects of these policies are already being felt in fields and hotels across the country, threatening economic stability in industries reliant on immigrant labor.
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Labor Shortages Drive Up Costs
The U.S. agriculture sector, heavily dependent on undocumented workers, faces a crisis as deportation fears deter laborers. According to the Department of Agriculture, about 40% of crop farmworkers are undocumented, with some studies suggesting the figure could exceed 60% (Farm Futures), Martin Casanova, founder of THX, a program connecting consumers with farmworkers, told Newsweek, “We are dangerously close to a breaking point. In 2022, an estimated 15 million tons of produce were left unharvested in the U.S.—enough for 30 billion daily servings”. He added, “Labor shortages are a significant factor in rising food prices. When farms can’t find enough workers to harvest crops on time, yields drop, supply tightens, and prices increase.”
In California’s San Joaquin Valley, reported U.S. Customs and Border Protection raids near Bakersfield in January caused a temporary 25% to 75% drop in citrus harvest workers, according to Casey Creamer, president of California Citrus Mutual. Manuel Cunha Jr., president of Nisei Farmers League, noted that these raids “raised fears among farmworkers up and down the San Joaquin Valley, disrupting communities and causing people not to report for work.” The resulting labor shortages forced farmers to leave crops unharvested, tightening supply chains and pushing up grocery prices for consumers.
The hospitality industry, particularly hotels, faces similar challenges. Undocumented workers fill critical roles in housekeeping, maintenance, and food service, keeping operational costs manageable. Trump’s deportation plans threaten to shrink this workforce, forcing hotels to compete for a smaller pool of workers at higher wages. The American Business Immigration Coalition (ABIC) estimates that agricultural output could fall between $30 and $60 billion if mass deportations proceed, with broader economic impacts felt in hospitality as well. These costs are likely to be passed on to consumers through higher room rates and dining expenses.
Farmer and Worker Perspectives
Farmers are grappling with dwindling labor pools and rising costs. In the Mississippi Delta, one farmer, who spoke anonymously to Farm Progress, said, “I used to hire some of them [undocumented laborers], but I don’t mess around with that now. It’s just not worth it”. The fear of immigration enforcement has led to a cautious approach, reducing the workforce and increasing reliance on costly alternatives like the H-2A visa program. John Boelts, president of the Arizona Farm Bureau, noted, “We are short on folks for harvest and irrigation work,” estimating that H-2A workers cost about $30 an hour due to regulatory requirements.
Matt Teagarden, CEO of the Kansas Livestock Association, told Newsweek, “I have had reports of employees expressing fear and uncertainty because of the increase in enforcement activity”. He emphasized the need for “a process for the current workforce to earn legal status” and an efficient guest worker program to stabilize the industry.
Hotel workers, though less documented in the provided sources, are equally critical. ABIC’s Rebecca Shi, CEO, stated, “These workers are the backbone of our economy, ensuring our farms thrive and our businesses operate smoothly.” The loss of these workers would disrupt hotel operations, leading to higher labor costs and, ultimately, increased prices for guests.
Trump’s Proposed Solution and Its Limits
President Trump has floated a plan to allow undocumented farm and hotel workers to leave and return legally with employer endorsements. On April 10, he said, “So, a farmer will come in with a letter concerning certain people saying ‘They’re great; they’re working hard.’ We’re going to slow it down a little bit for them, and then we’re going to ultimately bring them back. They go out. They’re going to come back as legal”. He reiterated on April 28, “We’re going to work with them right from the beginning on, trying to get them back in legally. So it gives you real incentive. Otherwise they never come back”.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins echoed this sentiment, stating, “There is zero doubt that labor is a massive issue for probably the large majority of our agriculture industry, our farmers and our ranchers”. She noted that the administration is exploring changes to the H-2A visa program and other legal pathways, adding, “The details are being worked out right now as we speak, and there’s more to come on that. But I think it should be an encouraging sign for our ag producers that the president himself is focused on that.”
However, experts question the feasibility of this plan. Casanova warned, “Limiting legal immigration directly undermines the labor supply U.S. farms rely on. The H-2A guest worker program, which supplies temporary visas for agricultural labor, has experienced slow growth due to rising costs and bureaucratic delays”. The American Immigration Council estimates that mass deportations could cost $315 billion initially, with annual expenses of up to $88 billion, further straining resources needed to streamline legal pathways.
Economic Ripple Effects
The economic consequences of deporting undocumented workers extend beyond farms and hotels. Reduced agricultural output and higher labor costs will increase food prices, exacerbating inflation pressures already felt by American households. In hospitality, staffing shortages could lead to reduced service quality and higher prices, impacting tourism and local economies. ABIC’s Sam Sanchez and Massey Villarreal, co-chairs of Comité de 100, emphasized, “These hard-working individuals are the backbone of our industries. They have been working for decades and paying taxes.”
As farmers like those in the Mississippi Delta and hotel operators brace for tighter labor markets, the absence of a comprehensive immigration reform plan leaves industries vulnerable. Artemio Muniz, an ABIC member and employer, noted, “What we are seeing is President Trump beginning the negotiations of what a Trump-based immigration plan would look like”. Yet, without swift action, the economic fallout from deportations could outweigh the administration’s enforcement goals, leaving American consumers to bear the cost.